Ask ten traders what their win rate is and nine of them will tell you. Ask those same ten what their expectancy is and most will go quiet. That silence is why most traders blow up. I'm going to make a case in this post that win rate — the metric you've been told to chase, the one that gets bragged about in Discords and screenshotted on Twitter — is one of the most misleading numbers in trading. And I'm going to show you the one number that actually predicts whether you'll be